Varied parameter
Investment return (expected)
3% → 7%
Investment Return Comparison
See how different expected investment returns affect your long-term financial outcomes.
Simulation Overview
This simulation varies a single parameter while keeping all other assumptions constant.
Base scenario assumptions
- The simulation starts at age 30 and runs until age 65.
- The scenario does not include labor income.
- The scenario includes recurring passive income of €18,000 per year.
- Passive income grows annually at an average rate of 2%.
- Passive income is taxed at a rate of 8%.
- Passive income represents recurring cash flow from assets such as dividends or rental properties, and is independent of labor income.
- The saving rate is set to 10%.
- Minimum annual living expenses are €14,000.
- Savings are invested with stochastic annual returns.
- The average annual return is 4%, with year-to-year variability.
- All values are expressed in real terms, assuming average annual inflation of 3%.
- Financial independence is defined as having net worth equal to 25 times annual expenses.
- Bankruptcy is triggered if net worth remains below €0 for 2 consecutive years.
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Scenario Comparison
Results are shown as a realistic range. P10 represents a pessimistic outcome (bad years, poor returns), while P90 represents an optimistic outcome (strong markets, good timing). Most simulations fall between these two values.
| Scenario | Median Net Worth | P10 Net Worth | P90 Net Worth | FI Probability | FI Median Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 615,357 | 392,106 | 987,299 | 96% | 55 |
| 5% | 915,607 | 554,979 | 1,526,436 | 100% | 51 |
| 7% | 1,412,803 | 817,502 | 2,462,878 | 100% | 48 |
How Your Financial Life Evolves
These charts show how each scenario affects long-term outcomes, including expected wealth, downside risk, and the likelihood of achieving financial independence.
Median net worth
Net worth outcome range (p10–p90)
Financial independence probability
Median age of financial independence
What This Means for You
The numbers above translate into real-life trade-offs between risk, reward, and the age at which financial independence becomes most likely.
What would you like to explore next?
You can apply this scenario to your own life, or continue exploring other assumptions within the same life path.